The River Simulation

Background:

Picture a valley. The year is 8,000 B.C. Life in this valley is fed by a river that tumbles from a distant range of mountains. Along the banks of this river five villages have developed. Each village has its own customs, leaders, and religious beliefs. While the villagers have little contact with each other, they speak the same language. Some think that there was a time hundreds of years ago when the people of these villages may have belonged to the same family and worshipped the same gods. Others doubt that this could ever have been the case since the villagers often mistrust their neighbours and seldom speak.

Info to consider:

In a normal year, the river provides an ample supply of water to irrigate the fields of grain that surround each village. In an ideal year, each village is able to easily feed every member and to gradually increase its population. This, however, is not a normal year. A drought has descended on the valley and the river has been slowed to a trickle. The villagers understand the danger that this drought poses to their survival. If any village tries to take from the river the amount of water that it would ideally need to water its fields, the impact on the other villages will be immediate and severe.

In a valley, a severe drought means that there will be many deaths. This stark reality has compelled the leaders of the five villages to call an emergency meeting. At this meeting, a leader from each village will eventually declare what his / her village plans to do in order to respond to the drought. There are many strategies that might be followed. Not all of these strategies are peaceful. Some people in the valley think that one or more villages may combine and declare war on their neighbours. Rumours about secret deals are already circulating. Others think that that the villagers will be able to work out a peaceful strategy to resolve the problems created by the drought.

The Facts:

Regardless of what happens at the meeting of the village leaders, there are a few realities about life in the valley that no one can escape.

1. In an ideal year, each village uses 20 litres of water per person per week. At this level,

the villages are able to prosper and their populations can increase. To reach this

weekly level of consumption for all of the villages, there would need to be 20,000

litres of water in the river. As a result of the drought, there is a maximum of 10,000

litres of water in the river each week.

2. The minimum amount of water needed to ensure that no one in a particular village

dies as a result of the drought is 15 litres per person per week.

3. At 10 litres of water per person per week, roughly 10% of the population of each

village will die.

4. In the case of a war among some or all of the villages, the side with the largest

population will automatically win. As is often the case in war, the losing village or

villagers will be forced to leave the valley. Few if any will survive if they are forced

to leave the valley in the middle of this drought.

5. Wars carry a price and winners and losers will experience a loss of 15% of their

population.

6. As in real life, wars are often best planned in secrecy and declared with an element of

surprise.

7. War is not the only option and it may or many not be the best alternative.

Planning Phase: The members of each village will gather in private to:

a) determine who will be their designated leader

b) determine who will serve as their diplomat or diplomats (maximum of 2 per village)

c) develop a village plan

Note: During this phase there can be no communication with other villages (10 minutes)

Diplomacy Phase: Each village will have an opportunity to send out a maximum of two diplomats to travel to other villages to discuss plans, make deals, and decide on strategies. During the diplomacy phase, designated leaders cannot leave their own villages except for diplomats. Everyone else must remain at home to make plans and receive diplomats from other areas. There are no exceptions to this rule. (10 minutes)

Meeting of Village Leaders Phase: A meeting with the five leaders will be held to determine how to deal with the drought.

a) While other villagers are expected to sit near their leader during this meeting, the

leaders discuss how the villagers can best cope with the drought. Each village leader

must speak (5-10 minutes)

b) Following this general discussion, village leaders will have a few minutes to privately

discuss what has occurred with the members of their village. During these private

discussions, there can be no communication with other villages.

Final Declarations: Each leader must declare what his / her village intends to do. All declarations are final. Each leader must briefly explain the reasons behind his or her declaration.

a) The leader of Callisto will speak first.

b) The leader of Rhea will speak second.

c) The leader of Io will speak third.

d) The leader of Oberon will speak forth.

e) The leader of Titan will speak last.

REMEMBER ALL DECLARATIONS ARE FINAL!!!!!!!!

Village	Population	Ideal amount of water needed for maximum prosperity (20 litres per week per person)	Minimum amount of water needed no loss of life (15 litres per person per week)	Equal share of water per person during drought (10 litres per person per week)	Expected loss of life at 10 litres per person per week (10% of population	Expected loss of life for any village involved in a war (15% of population)
Titan	300	6,000 litres	4,500 litres	3,000 litres	30 deaths	45 deaths
Oberton	230	4,600 litres	3,450 litres	2,300 litres	23 deaths	34 deaths
Rhea	250	5,000 litres	3,750 litres	2,500 litres	25 deaths	38 deaths
Callisto	110	2,200 litres	1,650 litres	1,100 litres	12 deaths	16 deaths
Io	110	2,200 litres	1,650 litres	1,100 litres	12 deaths	16 deaths
Totals	1,000	20,000 litres	15,000litres	10,000 litres	102 deaths	Depends

Jot Notes: