Introduction: The Overpopulation Debate
§ Two central debates concerning human pop’n issues
o Is overpop’n a problem?
o If yes, who is responsible?
§
1996:
§ end of last ice age: entire earth probably supported less than 10 million ppl
§ 1930: 2 billion; 1995: 6 billion; 2025: 8 billion?
§
We are adding 100 million
people a year to the planet (more than pop’n of
§ Not uncommon to hear estimates of global pop’n of well over 12 billion
§ Demographers liken global pop’n growth to large cargo ships
o One can stop engines, but it will be some time before one stops the boat
§ Many women of childbearing age: even if they all had 1 child, pop’n will still increase dramatically since newborns would be alieve at the same time as the parents
§ Major food crisis on horizon
§ 60s, 70s: “green revolution” increased crop yields b/c of irrigation pesticides, fertilizer
o less viable today b/c almost all prime arable land has been used and excessive use of pesticides caused more problems than it solved
§ promise of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) = politically and scientifically contentious
§ enough food is available now; malnutrition and undernourishment à inadequate distribution
o this may not be the case when our pop’n doubles to 12 billion
o current trends show distribution of food continues to be uneven (overindulgence in some areas and malnutrition on others)
§ demographic transition that characterized European development involved decline of birth and death rates
§
o
Some argue that
§ “Pop’n bomb” idea popularized in 70s by Paul and Anne Ehrlich
o massive increases in pop’n threatened not just the standard of living of people around the globe, but human life itself.
§ “Tragedy of the Commons” by Garret Hardin (neo-Malthusian literature):
o we simply cannot afford to allow pop’n increases
o to ensure our future collective survival, even the freedom to reproduce must be limited
§
some argue pop’n growth will
level off w/ continued economic growth or with famine and disease (e.g.
§ others suggest that consumption patterns of the citizens in relatively affluent states are unsustainable
§ Environmental impacts of pop’n size, affluence (i.e. consumption), and technology are interrelated (so says a formula from the 1960s)
o Northern states contribute more to global warming
o Southern states contribute to rapid pop’n growth
§ Ethical question: should gov’ts impose birth control on their populations?
o Chinese gov’t à once child policy successful but has downfalls (e.g. infanticide)
§
UN Conference on Population and
Development (
o Up to individual governments to stem poverty and provide family planning possibilities
§ Two visible outcomes of pop’n explosion:
o Urbanization
o Demand for birth control policies in crowded states
Urbanization
§
One of the most pronounced
effects of pop’n growth and movement = urbanization
§ City = primary indicator of “modernity” and progress
o
§ Big cities w/ high pop’n densities reduce unit costs of infrastructure (cheaper to supply essential serves such as water, electricity and education) to ppl if they live closer together)
o Employment opportunities and image of better life attract migratory labour
o Companies more likely to invest in cities b/c easily accessible labour pool and markets
o High concentrated activities can be regulated by gov’t
§ Environmental question: is urbanization really a step into the right developmental direction?
o Traffic congestion, waste disposal/sanitation, demands on natural resources
o Increasingly, northern and southern analysts of sustainable development cast urbanization in a negative light à this view is tied to pop’n growth
§ Disastrous environmental effects = urbanization + poverty + poor services + lax regulations
o Infrastructure is unable to meet city demands
o Unequal access to infrastructure that is available
o Lack of precautions against the environmental risks (natural and industrial)
§
§
Only 2% of
GLOSSARY
Demographic transition theory: Argues that decline in the industrialized state’s birth rate is a direct consequence of social and economic development, and that with time other states will follow.
Neo-Malthusian: Argument that resources will be outstripped by population growth in the modern era; has led to calls for strict population control.
Infanticide: The deliberate killing of children.
Urbanization: The process of growth, often rapid, of cities.
Gross
national product (GNP): The sum of all the goods
and services produced by a state’s nationals, whether in that state or abroad.